Posts
All the articles I've posted.
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The bye week paradox: Why rested teams win games but lose bets
Teams coming off bye weeks win 55% of games but cover the spread just 48% of the time. The betting market is overvaluing rest—and it's costing bettors money.
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The Divisional Round Curse: Why Top Seeds Keep Falling
First-round byes were supposed to be an advantage. The data tells a different story.
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The Backup QB Championship Paradox
When stars go down, backups step up—and win at a surprising rate in big games.
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The Dynasty Cliff: How NFL Empires End
Every dynasty falls. The data reveals a predictable pattern in how it happens.