statz.guru/nfl
RSS FeedData-driven NFL analysis, visualizations, and insights. Exploring patterns, testing hypotheses, and finding stories in the numbers.
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Featured
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The Rest Paradox: Why Bye Teams Keep Winning Games But Losing Bets
Bye week teams are 7-0 straight up in the divisional round. Teams with rest advantage are 1-6 ATS. Here's why the market keeps getting this wrong.
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The Divisional Round Curse: Why Top Seeds Keep Falling
First-round byes were supposed to be an advantage. The data tells a different story.
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The Backup QB Championship Paradox
When stars go down, backups step up—and win at a surprising rate in big games.
Recent Analysis
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45-TD Curse: Why Elite QB Seasons Never Win Super Bowls
Six QBs threw 45+ TDs in a season. All won 12+ games. None won a Super Bowl. The data reveals why individual QB excellence isn't enough to win it all.
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The Home Underdog Paradox: Why Big Playoff Spreads Don't Cover
Home underdogs getting 7.5+ points cover at 51.3% in NFL playoffs. Small spreads? Just 36%. The market misprices home field when it matters most.
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Vegas Gets the Spread Right But Misjudges Home Wins
Seven seasons of data show Vegas achieves 48.5% ATS efficiency, yet home teams win 8% more often than spreads suggest. The gap reveals a subtle edge.
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The Playoff Experience Myth: First-Time QBs Win Just as Often as Veterans
Analysis of 306 playoff games reveals QB experience provides no advantage. First-timers win 44% vs. elite vets at 54% - markets already know.